Bitcoin’s 2022 Bottom, where is it? When is it?

First of all, short term price predictions are all but impossible right now.  We have detailed the many cases of manipulation in Bitcoin, expecially in late 2021 and 2022, since the Bitcoin Future’s ETF was approved, but not the Spot ETF.  This chart below IS bullish, but short term it is very bearish.  This appears very accurate based on the 2022 rate hikes, and general hawkish stance from the Fed.  Here is the chart.  Remember, descending wedges are predominantly bullish, longterm:

 

 

Bitcoin could easily drop this summer to $20K.  It could have a wick below that to $17K or even, God forbid, $15k.  If you can buy these dip levels do so.  We still see a breakout late this year, worst case in early 2023.  Ultimately, the bull market top for Bitcoin will occur AFTER the next halving, which is February or March 2024.  Usually it takes 18 to 24 months to complete.  So late 2025, at that point, we can easily see $300K to $500K Bitcoin.  Like we say every blog lately, rate hikes are temporary.  The only way the Fed can grow this economy is QE (quantitative easing), low rates, money printing.  When that does come back, probably this fall, Bitcoin will break out.  However, until then, it will be choppy, and sideways to falling.  That is why we always say, keep a long time horizon.  Look at the BIG picture.  

 

Below is the tweet from El Salvador President Nayib Bukele regarding the 44 countries meeting with him this week for 3 days to discuss Bitcoin as legal tender:

 

 

Below is their picture in El Salvador:

 

 

Many of these nation states are close to hyperinflation.  Some do not even have a fiat currency and they use other countries currency.  Bitcoin will give them an inflation hedge, and decentralize them from globalist authoritarians who would by default, control their currency if they let them.  Bitcoin seperates money from state.  As more and more currencies inflate.  Officially, hyperinflation is 50% inflation per month.  We contend 50% inflation per year would do irreparable damage to any country and it’s economy.  This must be avoided at all cost.  Now that Russia and China have all but destroyed the petro dollar system, by trading Oil for Rubles and Yuan.  The US dollar will keep inflating despite rate hikes!  We know this.  Rate hikes will never be able to keep up.  Just look at the devestation inflation and raw material shortages have on food prices.  Wheat inflation is devastating to these third world countries that are now exploring currency solutions to their respective countries economic problems.  Bitcoin seperates money from state.  It brings freedom to these people, who would otherwise be seeing their wage get vaporized to inflation every month.  Bitcoin is volatile, especially this year.  However, waiting out that volatility pays!  Bitcoin averages over 200% annual ROI since 2009.  That number may drop some as it matures.  It does outpace inflation.  Not holding a local currency, separating money from state.  That makes a lot of sense now, whereas 5 years ago.  It did not.  Here is the wheat chart below.  See this, and know Wheat was less than half this current price, last July.  That is 50% inflation in 10 months for wheat!:
 

Therefore, Bitfinex has never before had sustained longs for Bitcoin.  This time frame we are living in is extremely volatile.  A war in Ukraine, another around the corner in Taiwan.  Inflation is now global.  Bitcoin is the hedge.  Price does not reflect that today.  This chart shows what investor sentiment is:

 

 

We’re all preparing for a long, hot, volatile summer in 2022.  Global macro is upside down with the Wars, raw material shortages, inflation raging, food shortages, civil unrest!  We are in a recession right now!  How long until Bitcoin breaks out?  It would be a guess to state when Bitcoin will break out.  It could be 6 months.  Yet, it could take a year.  Or, it may happen sooner than expected.  It only pays to focus on long term time horizons.  That is where we are bullish on Bitcoin.  

 

The fear and greed index is now at 8.  Lowest it has ever been except for one instance in 2015.  

 

 

In terms of fear and greed indexes.  This is a bottom.  It could drop to 5 or 6 and the price could go below $20K.  That won’t matter in 3.5 years when the price is well over $100K!  Hedge inflation risk now, before inflation makes Bitcoin impossible to afford.  Below is a chart of price action, showing a triple bottom at support.  If Bitcoin breaks this support it could grind down to $25K.  It is very bearish.  However, long term it is bullish:

 

 

This is not financial advise and we are not financial advisors.  We need a Bitcoin bounce above $41K to really be bullish.  We will be tested until the global macro environment becomes favorable again for inflation hedge investments.  That means the default position of the Fed and all central banks.  Money printing!  It will happen.  We don’t know when.  The longterm investor can win here.  Any short term risky positions are likely to get whipped out.  Investing in Luna or Terra is a great example of that.  Bitcoin is the lifeboat for all of these 44 countries plus the 3 that already made Bitcoin legal tender.  Come to think of it.  China, even after the mining ban from 2021.  Is ranked #2 in Bitcoin mining behind the US.  That is amazing since the ban is still in effect.  We cannot count out the ingenuity of mankind to find a way, despite government intervention.  Obviously, most of the mining rigs moved and are operating in China.  Some stayed where they were.  Bitcoin mining cannot be regulated out of existance.  China proves that.  Click here to read article.

 

There will be brighter days Bitcoiners!  Stay patient and HODL!

 

Neutral ATM is here to get everyone off of zero Bitcoin.  

 

 

Give Neutral ATM a try.  We have low rates, convenient locations and we are expanding. Contact Neutral ATM, we will answer all your questions about Bitcoin and using our ATM machines. Find a Neutral ATM Bitcoin machine location near you.