On Tuesday we showed some proof that Bitcoin had bottomed or was very, very close to a bottom. Price was in the high $19K’s and now it has touched $21K. No garauntees, but we feel confident, Bitcoin won’t dip much lower than these levels. Let’s look at what other markets are doing as Bitcoin remains in consolidation, and forms it’s base on the charts.
M2 Money supply has been slowly rising since 1971, when President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard. Since then the US dollar has been backed by the US Military, and nothing else. See this recent M2 money supply chart. It’s not too recent since the chart was discontinued by the FED! Here is the money supply chart:
Note the vertical grey bars are recessions. Since 2008, M2 money supply has gone parabolic. Is that sustainable? Next look at the median price of homes sold in the US. Like money supply from the Fed, home values have risen sharply since 1971. Remember, valuable fixed assets like land and real estate really just track money supply growth. If land prices go off a cliff with real estate this fall, and into next year. We will be looking into investing into more land. Now, as for median home price trends, here is that chart:
Finally here is a chart on the number of hours of US average wage pay required to buy 1 share of the S&P500:
Stocks are still extremely over bought! Don’t believe us? See this chart for S&P 500 price to sales ratio:
Here is another Stansberry Research chart for Stocks to GDP. Both of these charts are at all time highs:
We expect, as does Stansberry Research, a 60% to 80% stock market crash from the levels it is at now! It is down 25% to 30% already for 2022. This has been a bear market year for all assets except Oil, Food, and Metal commodities. However, as stocks and alt coins have fallen and have further to go. Bitcoin is forming a base. See this chart below from Crypto Zombie:
This pennant pattern could still crash down. We previously thought Bitcoin could fall below $14K. However, enough signs in the charts have appeared this last month, that we think the $17,500 to $20,000 range we have been in WAS THE BOTTOM! Bitcoin may simply bounce along this accumulation range at a slightly upwards tilt the rest of 2022. It will be a red year like 2018, and 2014 were. However, the worst of it may be behind us now! We have bought more Bitcoin in June than at any time since March and April 2020. There will be dips to buy later this year. We don’t think they will be as good as the June dips were. Time will tell. If we’re wrong, we don’t think the difference will matter in 2025 when Bitcoin is hundreds of thousands, and inflation is still high. Bitcoin could get down to $14K. We now believe that is unlikely. Therefore, we bought as much sub $20K Bitcoin as possible.
Bitcoin is still remaining inside of it’s historical norms. See this Bitcoin price history chart below:
Each epoch after a Bitcoin halving is color coded. Purple is this epoch we are in now, the 4th epoch. We see Bitcoin eclipsing $30K in 4 to 6 weeks, eclipsing $40K in 3 to 4 months, etc. A slow grind up until 2023. Nothing exciting. Again, 2022 is a bear market. Just remember, these are the times when life changing investments are made! We like physical Gold long term as well. However, compared to Bitcoin, Gold has never performed anywhere near like Bitcoin has. Thus, we sold our Gold for Bitcoin and remain there. Bitcoin basically trades volatility in price, for long term lack of risk. It IS a risk off investment if treated long term! See this chart below from Dan Held:
It is laughable what mainstream media and financial media says about Bitcoin. Whenever they say its dead, that is the time to buy it up! We are not financial advisors and this is not financial advise. Bitcoin will slowly creep up now. That is what we see. The time to buy is now, or the last two weeks! The train is leaving the station!
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