Bitcoin Sentiment
Fear and greed index in 2020 with Bitcoin at $16K
Fear and greed index in 2022 with Bitcoin at $30K:
Fear and Greed is a more subjective measurement, however, it has been as low as 8, a month ago. That is the second lowest fear and greed in Bitcoin history. We do think the bear market will get worse before it gets better. The charts below show Market value to realized value. When this ratio drops below 1. That is when we need to buy up Bitcoin in a big way. Today it is at 1.342. So it is close but not quite there yet:
Buying Bitcoin right is more important than selling it. It is a long term investment. Below are a series of charts from Steve Courtney. They will help us develop a real time frame for when this bottom of the bear market will hit, this summer. It’s happening soon, and this is a generational buying opportunity!
In mid may the 3 day death cross hit. That got Bitcoin close to the point of this final leg down to mark the bottom of the bull market. This is the generational buying opportunity. It has not hit yet (the final leg down). It could be weeks away though! In this next chart the death cross on the 4 day chart, instead of the 3 day chart, can be seen:
The cross is scheduled for some time in August. See the chart below:
Historically (2015, 2018, and 2019) the bottom hit 40 days on average, BEFORE the 4 day death cross happened:
This means that sometime in July or perhaps late June the Bitcoin bottom will hit. The charts will show us. The point here is, it does’nt matter if you buy heavy at $24K, $20K, or lower. Just buying close to this generational buying opportunity will give you the lowest cost basis. In 2025 when the next bull market when Bitcoin hits it’s top ($300K plus?). Buying this summer at $20K, $14K, or $24K is’nt going to be that relevant. We have to know when the time frame to buy is. Not the exact number. We are getting close, waiting a few more weeks will be worth it. This is not financial advise and we are not financial advisors. We are truly convinced, as disappointing as it is to say it. That $69K was the top of the 2021 bull market. We firmly think the lack of a spot Bitcoin ETF is why the $130K to $190K market top prediction did not happen. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust which has $40 Billion in AUM. Has seen its GBTC ETF which is future’s based, not spot based drop from a 20% premium last year to a 30% discount this year. So investors are down big in GBTC. We only own physical Bitcoin and have never bought an ETF. However, institutional investors can only use an ETF. With no access to physical Bitcoin, institutional investors are out of luck on 90% of the Bitcoin market. The future’s market is 1/10th of the physical market for Bitcoin. Even if no Spot ETF is ever approved. Bitcoin is still going to gain adoption faster than the internet. It may not be through institutional adoption that Bitcoin ascends if it has to be without a Spot ETF. Either way, Bitcoin will win. Largely due to its scarcity, and decentralization.
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