Bitcoin: Endowment vs Speculation

Bitcoin has survivied countless 50% plus crashes.  It has out paced all other investments.  Bitcoin is being purchased right now at this dip by; Nation States, Hedge Funds, Institutional Investors, Pensions.  Friday we showed how Blackrock and Citadel manipulated UST and Luna, and crashed them, which crashed Bitcoin at the time.  However, this weekly candle shows that Bitcoin wicked to $25K but closed the body of this weekly candle at $30K.  Thus, this is a bottom candle.  Next Sunday this can be confirmed.  We doubt Bitcoin gets anywhere near $25K this week!  If this last weeks candle, is proven a bottom candle in a week.  Be glad you did’nt sell and bought this dip, as we suggested and did.  These markets never get old, they never stop getting a leg up over competition.  Manipulation will always play a role in Bitcoin.  It’s worse now because we have a Future’s ETF and no Spot ETF in Bitcoin.  Once the Bitcoin Spot ETF is approved, change will be obvious.  Bitcoin has never been less than a technological breakthrough, like the financial world has never seen.  Here is the bottom chart we need to be watching over the next week:

 

 

If this gets confirmed by Sunday night 5/22, Bitcoin will rally over the next number of months.  Until year end 2022 or even beyond then.  Time will tell.

 

This next chart looks at Market Yield on US Treasury Securities, at 2 year maturity.  As this yield slows and rolls over as it appears is happening now.  What does this mean?  Are rate hikes already priced in?  Is recession in the economy expected, and this yield curve is the result?  We think so.  Here is the chart:

 

 

We have been saying for a long time this year, that rate hikes will only work for so long.  We have seen this last month, significant retraction in GDP growth, and ISM Index numbers.  By June we expect the economy to be in recession levels of retraction, and that is only the beginning.  In that environment, at some point, the Fed will eventually have to revert to QE and money printing.  Maybe that is August, September, October or later.  We expect it in 2022!  Time will tell what plays out.  If we are right about that, Bitcoin will run again.  

The meyer multiple also shows a significant bottom in this chart below:

 

We saw a meyer multiple bottom like this in 2015, twice in 2018, March 2020, and now!  This is a significant bottom for Bitcoin we are in right now.  Neutral ATM started out in Bitcoin at the March 2020 bottom, and we know when the global macro environment does turn.  A run from here could break 1,000% as it did in 2020 (1,800%).  This entity adjusted dormancy flow chart below, also shows a major bottom has been found.  That does not mean the price cannot go any lower.  Just that Bitcoin is oversold here, at this point.  Here is the chart below:

 

 

So the moral to these charts and to this story is; HODL.  Bitcoin will make a run.  It may be in 90 or 120 days from now.  However, this run coud be epic!  It is worth the wait.  Bitcoin is your endowment, use Gold, Silver, Art, Classic Cars, or Ethereum as your speculation!  Bitcoin is so scarce, and by 2024 will be twice as scarce.  It will be the most deflationary monetary asset in the world by then.  Which is in two years.  Since it has no owner or founder to rug pull it, Bitcoin is a true market asset.  It will take over for the US Dollar in some capacity, and much sooner than most believe possible.  A backing for currency may very well be where Bitcoin ends up.  Again, we have to wait on it to play out.  Fiat currencies are dying right in front of us.  CBDC is extremely unpopular, because the word has gotten out about CBDC.  We think it does get rolled out, but it’s unpopularity will be it’s downfall.  Bitcoin is so decentralized that even with CBDC, Bitcoin will prevail in the end.  It is everything CBDC is not.  Decentralized, private, and scarce.  Give it time, patience is required!  We are not financial advisors and this is not financial advise.  Make Bitcoin your endowment and get out of the way.  Give it 5 to 10 years and see where it is then!

 

32 central banks and 12 financial institutions are meeting in El Salvador this week.  They are being hosted by President Nayib Bukele to discuss Bitcoin as legal tender.  Expect more Central American, and South American countries to announce Bitcoin as legal tender at some point in 2022.  

 

Neutral ATM is here to get everyone off of zero Bitcoin. 

 

Give Neutral ATM a try.  We have low rates, convenient locations and we are expanding. Contact Neutral ATM, we will answer all your questions about Bitcoin and using our ATM machines. Find a Neutral ATM Bitcoin machine location near you.