Bitcoin and the Commodities Super Cycle

Bitcoin is far, far below the stock to flow model.  Inflation is still out of control.  Yet, now, a bottom appears to have been established and Bitcoin is moving up at a substantial rate.  Below is the stock to flow chart:
 

 

This may be a wild ride, for today’s blog!  Below is home builders survey results showing hom home builing peaked in 2021, and is falling sharply to recession levels (50).  The latest reading is 50.4.  A housing recession is coming!:
 

 

The home value to income ratio is at 4.9X right now.  At the top of the 2006 housing bubble it was 4.5X.  This is substantially worse than 2006 bubble territory:
 

Yesterday, we found out the 1 milliion barrels per day being syphoned out of the US strategic petroleum reserve was being given to foreign countries including China.  Yet, oil demand keeps rising because that is the world’s only cheap, affordable, and reliable energy source!  Here is a chart below on oil demand:

 
So the world’s #1 economy is giving away it’s strategic petroleum reserves to foreign countries like Ukraine, and China.  Meanwhile gasoline prices are well beyond all time highs in history!  

In yesterday’s blog we detailed how overbought the stock market is even at these -25% reduced levels right now.  We expect a -60% to -80% retraction in the equities markets.  We expect a lesser retraction in real estate.  We also expect oil prices to approach $200 per barrel since demand is continually going up.  As the above chart shows.  What does all of this mean for Inflation and Bitcoin?  It means the economic destruction the US and Europe are experiencing right now is just beginning.  It means we are at the precipice of economic destruction not seen since 1929.  Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate all going down simultaneously.  While Oil prices drive straight up and the US has little strategic reserve left.  When oil prices drive up like this, it drives up food inflation, causes raw material shortages, and this is why farmers all over Europe are rioting, and several of these governments are dangerously close to being overthrown.  The UK has forced Prime Minister Johnson to resign which is the first of many!  Inflation is worse in Europe than the US.  So, we expect European economies to reach for Bitcoin before the US does.  However, we see Mexico has a bill in legislation right now to make Bitcoin legal tender.  The state of Louisiana just put forth a bill to allow banks to hold Bitcoin in their reserves!  Click here to view the bill on twitter.

 

We expect a lot more of this from states and nation states globally.  Fiat currencies are devaluating at a fast rate globally.  As we have said many times before, Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia are accepting payment for Oil in there own currencies.  This kills the Petrodollar!  Russia is likely holding Bitcoin in their reserves, and have not publicly announced it yet.  It is taking longer, and becoming more difficult to obtain Bitcoin, and move it off of exchanges. 
 

Someone is buying $1 million per second in Bitcoin on Binance.  Is a supply shock coming?  We called for that months ago, and then the price was cut in half in the Bitcoin market.  Was that all manipulation by Whales?  We think that is likely the case.  Here is the Binance transactions:

 

 

Then, consider what is happening in Turkey.  They are Bitcoin adoption leaders in the middle east.  Yet, they aso lead the middle east in Inflation.  We see many nation states at the breaking point.  We see a flood of nations adopting Bitcoin at some point.  So far it is only a trickle.  Investing is all about buying in before the flood of money hits.  That is what we see coming.  We do not believe the rate hikes will ever adequately control inflation.  They may fudge the numbers, but the Fed will never control inflation!  We are not financial advisors and this is not financial advise.  As Oil prices skyrocket this fall.  Let’s see who goes first in the race for a sound money.  All these nations cannot hold out that much longer.  Especially when oil hits $150/barrel, then $175/barrel.  We have 29 years of oil and gas experience.  Out of control oil prices will drive inflation now!  Watch!  This will not end well, many countries will have to adopt Bitcoin to save themselves.  Better own some! 
 

Neutral ATM is here to get everyone off of zero Bitcoin.  

 

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